[SMM Manganese Ore Weekly Review] The Manganese Ore Market Has Strong Long-Term Cost Support, and the Market Shows a Temporarily Stable Operating Trend

October 31 news:

Northern ports: South African high-iron 29.4-30.1 yuan/mtu, up 0.34% WoW; South African semi-carbonate 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from Tuesday; Gabon 39.6-40.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 39.9-40.4 yuan/mtu, down 0.25% WoW from Tuesday; South African medium-iron 35.1-35.8 yuan/mtu, up 0.28% WoW.

Southern ports: South African high-iron 30.7-31.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.32% WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36.9-37.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon 40.5-40.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 40.1-40.8 yuan/mtu, down 0.25% WoW; South African medium-iron 36.5-37.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.27% WoW.

Supply side, prices—manganese ore offers of overseas miners for November, including South32, Comilog, UMK, and NMT, all increased MoM from October, directly boosting cost support; quantity-wise, the reduction in manganese ore port arrivals in Q4 hinges on Gabon ore. Due to rising forward manganese ore prices and reduced Gabon ore arrivals, miners' bullish sentiment increased later.

Demand side, after the National Day holiday, the downstream SiMn market was in the doldrums, with the traditional peak season failing to meet expectations. Plants operated on order-based production with low enthusiasm, and starting next month, electricity costs rose as the rainy season ended, leading to lower overall operating rates in south China. Alloy plants avoided excessive manganese ore stockpiling, maintaining purchasing as needed, and the current ore sales pace remained moderate.

Inventory side, Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port saw slight destocking this Friday, with miners holding strong reluctance to sell, resulting in few low-priced spot ore transactions.

Overall, the supply side provided direct support for price increases, while downstream absorption of manganese ore still needed follow-up, and current ore prices remained stable.